Model analysis and data validation of structured prevention and control interruptions of emerging infectious diseases.

The design of optimized non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is critical to the effective control of emergent outbreaks of infectious diseases such as SARS, A/H1N1 and COVID-19 and to ensure that numbers of hospitalized cases do not exceed the carrying capacity of medical resources. To address this issue, we formulated a classic SIR model to include a close contact tracing strategy and structured prevention and control interruptions (SPCIs). The impact of the timing of SPCIs on the maximum number of non-isolated infected individuals and on the duration of an infectious disease outside quarantined areas (i.e. implementing a dynamic zero-case policy) were analyzed numerically and theoretically. These analyses revealed that to minimize the maximum number of non-isolated infected individuals, the optimal time to initiate SPCIs is when they can control the peak value of a second rebound of the epidemic to be equal to the first peak value. More individuals may be infected at the peak of the second wave with a stronger intervention during SPCIs. The longer the duration of the intervention and the stronger the contact tracing intensity during SPCIs, the more effective they are in shortening the duration of an infectious disease outside quarantined areas. The dynamic evolution of the number of isolated and non-isolated individuals, including two peaks and long tail patterns, have been confirmed by various real data sets of multiple-wave COVID-19 epidemics in China. Our results provide important theoretical support for the adjustment of NPI strategies in relation to a given carrying capacity of medical resources.

Vaccination against emerging and reemerging infectious diseases in places of detention: a global multistage scoping review.

Background: Despite the elevated risks of infection transmission, people in prisons frequently encounter significant barriers in accessing essential healthcare services in many countries. The present scoping review aimed to evaluate the state of availability and model of delivery of vaccination services within correctional facilities across the globe. Methods: Following the methodological framework for scoping reviews and adhering to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) extension for scoping reviews criteria, we conducted a systematic search across four peer-reviewed literature databases (Medline via PubMed, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, Science Direct, and EBSCO), as well as 14 sources of grey literature. Two researchers meticulously examined the identified papers independently to extract pertinent data published between 2012 and 2022. The quality of the selected publications was assessed using established quality assessment tools. Results: Of the 11,281 identified papers 52 met the inclusion criteria. With the exception of one, all the included publications presented data from high-income countries, predominantly originating from the United States. Across the world, the most prevalent vaccines available in prison settings were COVID-19 and HBV vaccines, typically distributed in response to health crises such as pandemics, epidemics, and local outbreaks. Vaccine coverage and uptake rates within correctional facilities displayed noteworthy disparities among various countries and regions. Besides, individual and organizational barriers and facilitating factors of vaccination in prison settings emerged and discussed in the text. Discussion: The lack of vaccination services combined with low rates of vaccination coverage and uptake among people living and working in correctional facilities represents a cause for concern. Prisons are not isolated from the broader community, therefore, efforts to increase vaccine uptake among people who live and work in prisons will yield broader public health benefits.

Six dilemmas for stakeholders inherently affecting data sharing during a zoonotic (re-)emerging infectious disease outbreak response.

BACKGROUND: Timely access to outbreak related data, particularly in the early events of a spillover, is important to support evidence based control measures in response to outbreaks of zoonotic Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID). Yet, this is impeded by several barriers that need to be understood to promote timely sharing of data. Using the MERS epidemic as a model for a zoonotic EID outbreak, this study sought to provide an in-depth understanding of data sharing practices. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews with 25 experts were conducted, along with Focus Group Discussions with 15 additional experts. A root-cause analysis was performed to examine the causal relationships between barriers. Enablers were mapped to the root-cause analysis to understand their influence on the barriers. Finally, root causes were placed in context of core dilemmas identified from the qualitative analysis. FINDINGS: Eight barriers to data sharing were identified, related to collaboration, technical preparedness, regulations, and (conflict of) interests, and placed in the context of six dilemmas inherent to the multi-stakeholder collaboration required for a zoonotic outbreak response. Fourteen identified enablers showed the willingness of stakeholders to overcome or circumvent these barriers, but also indicated the inherent trial and error nature of implementing such enablers. INTERPRETATION: Addressing the barriers requires solutions that must consider the complexity and interconnectedness of the root causes underlying them, and should consider the distinct scopes and interests of the different stakeholders. Insights provided by this study can be used to encourage data sharing practices for future outbreaks FUNDING: Wellcome Trust and UK Aid; EU-H2020 Societal Challenges (grant agreement no. 643476), Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (VI.Veni.201S.044).

Investigating the impact of vaccine hesitancy on an emerging infectious disease: a mathematical and numerical analysis.

Throughout the last two centuries, vaccines have been helpful in mitigating numerous epidemic diseases. However, vaccine hesitancy has been identified as a substantial obstacle in healthcare management. We examined the epidemiological dynamics of an emerging infection under vaccination using an SVEIR model with differential morbidity. We mathematically analyzed the model, derived R0, and provided a complete analysis of the bifurcation at R0=1. Sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations were used to quantify the tradeoffs between vaccine efficacy and vaccine hesitancy on reducing the disease burden. Our results indicated that if the percentage of the population hesitant about taking the vaccine is 10%, then a vaccine with 94% efficacy is required to reduce the peak of infections by 40%. If 60% of the population is reluctant about being vaccinated, then even a perfect vaccine will not be able to reduce the peak of infections by 40%.

Emerging zoonotic diseases in Southeast Asia in the period 2011-2022: a systematic literature review.

As COVID-19 has shown, pandemics and outbreaks of emerging infections such as Zika, Nipah, monkeypox and antimicrobial-resistant pathogens, especially emerging zoonotic diseases, continue to occur and may even be increasing in Southeast Asia. In addition, these infections often result from environmental changes and human behaviour. Overall, public health surveillance to identify gaps in the literature and early warning signs are essential in this region. A systematic review investigated the prevalence of emerging zoonotic diseases over 11 years from 2011 to 2022 in Southeast Asia to understand the status of emerging zoonotic diseases, as well as to provide necessary actions for disease control and prevention in the region. During the 2011-2022 period, studies on pigs, poultry, ruminants, companion animals and wildlife in Southeast Asia were reviewed thoroughly to assess the quality of reporting items for inclusion in the systematic review. The review was performed on 26 studies of pigs, 6 studies of poultry, 21 studies of ruminants, 28 studies of companion animals and 25 studies of wildlife in Southeast Asia, which provide a snapshot of the prevalence of the emerging zoonotic disease across the country. The findings from the review showed that emerging zoonotic diseases were prevalent across the region and identified a few zoonotic diseases associated with poultry, mainly stemming from Cambodia and Vietnam, as high priority in Southeast Asia.Clinical relevance: Appropriate prevention and control measures should be taken to mitigate the emerging zoonotic diseases in Southeast Asia.

Effects of Experiential Learning Program of Community Health Workers on Health Literacy and Preventive Behaviors of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases of Respiratory System.

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVE: Community health workers (CHWs) can be extremely important in many facets of healthcare, especially for marginalized communities. Health Literacy and Preventive Behaviors of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases of the Respiratory System were important for CHWs in Preventing and Control Diseases. METHODS: This quasi-experimental research; a 2 pretest-post group design, aimed to investigate the result of the experiential learning program of the CHWs toward health literacy and preventive behaviors of the infection of emerging and re-emerging diseases of the respiratory system. The samples are 66 CHWs working in Ngao District, Lampang Province which were divided into 2 groups; the experimental and control groups, 33 subjects for each group. The tools used in this research consisted of an experiential learning program for 6 weeks and a questionnaire concerning health literacy and preventive behaviors of emerging and re-emerging diseases in the respiratory system. RESULTS: The experimental group had the mean score of health literacy regarding the prevention of emerging and re-emerging diseases of the respiratory system at the highest level (X¯ = 4.52, SD = 0.16) which was higher than before receiving the program which was a high level (X¯ = 3.61, SD = 0.32) at the significant level of P < .001 while the preventive behavior concerning the emerging and re-emerging diseases in the respiratory system was at the highest level (X¯ = 4.63, SD = 0.41)and higher than the control group which was at a high level (X¯ = 4.36, SD = 0.50) at the significant level of P < .001. CONCLUSIONS: The research results could be a guideline for developing the CHW's potential effectively and proficiently.

"Smart markets": harnessing the potential of new technologies for endemic and emerging infectious disease surveillance in traditional food markets.

Emerging and endemic zoonotic diseases continue to threaten human and animal health, our social fabric, and the global economy. Zoonoses frequently emerge from congregate interfaces where multiple animal species and humans coexist, including farms and markets. Traditional food markets are widespread across the globe and create an interface where domestic and wild animals interact among themselves and with humans, increasing the risk of pathogen spillover. Despite decades of evidence linking markets to disease outbreaks across the world, there remains a striking lack of pathogen surveillance programs that can relay timely, cost-effective, and actionable information to decision-makers to protect human and animal health. However, the strategic incorporation of environmental surveillance systems in markets coupled with novel pathogen detection strategies can create an early warning system capable of alerting us to the risk of outbreaks before they happen. Here, we explore the concept of "smart" markets that utilize continuous surveillance systems to monitor the emergence of zoonotic pathogens with spillover potential.IMPORTANCEFast detection and rapid intervention are crucial to mitigate risks of pathogen emergence, spillover and spread-every second counts. However, comprehensive, active, longitudinal surveillance systems at high-risk interfaces that provide real-time data for action remain lacking. This paper proposes "smart market" systems harnessing cutting-edge tools and a range of sampling techniques, including wastewater and air collection, multiplex assays, and metagenomic sequencing. Coupled with robust response pathways, these systems could better enable Early Warning and bolster prevention efforts.

Health and care workers in long-term care facilities and their role in preventing emerging infectious diseases: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a tremendous impact on healthcare systems worldwide. In particular, long-term care facilities have proved more susceptible to infection as they care for vulnerable populations at high risk of chronic illness. How this impacts the role and core competencies of health and care workers in these facilities remains less understood. AIM: Describe how health and care workers contribute to the prevention of emerging infectious diseases in long-term care facilities. DESIGN: A scoping review. METHODS: A systematic search of literature dating from 2002 to 2022 was conducted in the following databases: EMBASE, Medline (Ovid), Cochrane Library, CINAHL Plus with Full Text (EBSCOhost), Web of Science, and AgeLine. Studies were selected if they focused on health and care workers in long-term care facilities, offered a perspective on the prevention of emerging infectious diseases or infection prevention and control, and were original qualitative or quantitative studies in English. Data were extracted, cross-checked and analyzed by two researchers, and any difference in views regarding the appropriateness of literature would be resolved by consulting a third researcher. An inductive descriptive approach was applied for the analysis of results, and themes were established via consensus meetings. RESULTS: A total of fourteen studies from Asia, Europe, and the Americas were included. Three themes emerged from the review: "The roles of health and care workers evolve with the times", "The core competencies of health and care workers are essential for preventing emerging infectious diseases in long-term care facilities" and "The key to successful prevention of emerging infectious diseases in long-term care facilities is through a systematic, comprehensive effort that mobilize health and care workers at all levels". Health and care workers had to take on increasingly complex roles and rely on their core competencies to cope with epidemic changes, and facility resources, employee quality and management models were found to have significantly improved infection prevention and control outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The roles of health and care workers are evolving, and effective infection prevention within long-term care facilities depends on their ability to perform core competencies with skill and confidence. Moreover, a systematic, comprehensive framework, for which this paper proposes three guidelines, is urgently needed to ensure consistent policy implementation within the facility as well as support and access to resources for health and care workers. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Infection prevention efforts within long-term care facilities must take into account the evolving roles of health and care workers, with a focus on guaranteeing access to resources, training and support that will help them gain the core competencies necessary for juggling those roles. In addition, there is an urgent need for research instruments that will help assess those competencies and identify areas of improvement.

Vaccine development: Current trends and technologies.

Despite the effectiveness of vaccination in reducing or eradicating diseases caused by pathogens, there remain certain diseases and emerging infections for which developing effective vaccines is inherently challenging. Additionally, developing vaccines for individuals with compromised immune systems or underlying medical conditions presents significant difficulties. As well as traditional vaccine different methods such as inactivated or live attenuated vaccines, viral vector vaccines, and subunit vaccines, emerging non-viral vaccine technologies, including viral-like particle and nanoparticle vaccines, DNA/RNA vaccines, and rational vaccine design, offer new strategies to address the existing challenges in vaccine development. These advancements have also greatly enhanced our understanding of vaccine immunology, which will guide future vaccine development for a broad range of diseases, including rapidly emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19 and diseases that have historically proven resistant to vaccination. This review provides a comprehensive assessment of emerging non-viral vaccine production methods and their application in addressing the fundamental and current challenges in vaccine development.

Role of Laboratory in Emerging Infectious Disease Control in Iran, Pasteur Institute of Iran, and national laboratory network.

Strengthening surveillance systems is a key aspect of outbreak response and was particularly important during the COVID-19 pandemic. Respiratory pathogens spread rapidly, and laboratory capacity is key to monitoring the spread. Prior to the pandemic, Iran had established a rapid response team and laboratory network to provide identification, monitoring, and detection of emerging infectious diseases, but did not have the laboratory capacity to respond to COVID-19. Following the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rapid response team diverted all attention to supporting COVID-19 surveillance. Iran built on the existing national laboratory infrastructure to incorporate SARS-CoV-2 surveillance into the response network. Based on existing international protocols, in-house molecular diagnosis capacity was operationalized, and commercial controls and assays were acquired and validated to national standards. The first COVID-19 laboratory was operational by January 25, less than 4 weeks before the initial detection of SARS-CoV-2 was announced. Assays and support were expanded and rolled out to form the COVID-19 National Laboratory Network, which consists of 560 multi-sectoral laboratories covering all provinces of Iran. The national laboratory network supports a wide range of operational capacities, including assay validation and protocol development, quality assurance, respiratory pathogen diagnosis and surveillance, and variant identification and assessment using multiple sequencing platforms. This network has supported the testing of over 55 million samples over the past 36 months using RT-qPCR and has sequenced approximately 2200 samples across the country, contributing the data to international databases, including GISAID.

Optimal vaccination ages for emerging infectious diseases under limited vaccine supply.

Rational allocation of limited vaccine resources is one of the key issues in the prevention and control of emerging infectious diseases. An age-structured infectious disease model with limited vaccine resources is proposed to explore the optimal vaccination ages. The effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] of the epidemic disease is computed. It is shown that the reproduction number is the threshold value for eradicating disease in the sense that the disease-free steady state is globally stable if [Formula: see text] and there exists a unique endemic equilibrium if [Formula: see text]. The effective reproduction number is used as an objective to minimize the disease spread risk. Using the epidemic data from the early spread of Wuhan, China and demographic data of Wuhan, we figure out the strategies to distribute the vaccine to the age groups to achieve the optimal vaccination effects. These analyses are helpful to the design of vaccination schedules for emerging infectious diseases.

Effective Vaccination and Education Strategies for Emerging Infectious Diseases Such as COVID-19.

Social isolation and control owing to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are easing; however, concerns regarding new infectious diseases have not disappeared. Given epidemic experiences such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the influenza pandemic, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and COVID-19, it is necessary to prepare for the outbreak of new infectious diseases and situations in which large-scale vaccinations are required. Although the development of vaccines against COVID-19 has contributed greatly to overcoming the pandemic, concerning vaccine side effects from the general public, including medical personnel, and decreased confidence in vaccine efficacy and side effects, present many challenges in promoting and educating vaccinations for new infectious diseases in the future. In addition to plans to develop vaccines for the outbreak of new infectious diseases, education and promotion plans are necessary to administer the latest developments of vaccines to the general public. Moreover, efforts are needed to secure the necessity, legitimacy, and evidence for rapid vaccination on a large scale at the national level. It is also necessary to carefully prepare scientific bases and explanatory statements so that the general public can easily understand them. This study aimed to establish vaccine strategies and vaccination education plans for new infectious diseases that may occur in the future. Many ways to promote vaccination to the general public and healthcare workers should be prepared to ensure that the latest vaccines against new infectious diseases are administered safely. Thus, education and promotion of vaccine efficacy and safety based on specific data from clinical studies are necessary.

Policies to prevent zoonotic spillover: a systematic scoping review of evaluative evidence.

BACKGROUND: Emerging infectious diseases of zoonotic origin present a critical threat to global population health. As accelerating globalisation makes epidemics and pandemics more difficult to contain, there is a need for effective preventive interventions that reduce the risk of zoonotic spillover events. Public policies can play a key role in preventing spillover events. The aim of this review is to identify and describe evaluations of public policies that target the determinants of zoonotic spillover. Our approach is informed by a One Health perspective, acknowledging the inter-connectedness of human, animal and environmental health. METHODS: In this systematic scoping review, we searched Medline, SCOPUS, Web of Science and Global Health in May 2021 using search terms combining animal health and the animal-human interface, public policy, prevention and zoonoses. We screened titles and abstracts, extracted data and reported our process in line with PRISMA-ScR guidelines. We also searched relevant organisations' websites for evaluations published in the grey literature. All evaluations of public policies aiming to prevent zoonotic spillover events were eligible for inclusion. We summarised key data from each study, mapping policies along the spillover pathway. RESULTS: Our review found 95 publications evaluating 111 policies. We identified 27 unique policy options including habitat protection; trade regulations; border control and quarantine procedures; farm and market biosecurity measures; public information campaigns; and vaccination programmes, as well as multi-component programmes. These were implemented by many sectors, highlighting the cross-sectoral nature of zoonotic spillover prevention. Reports emphasised the importance of surveillance data in both guiding prevention efforts and enabling policy evaluation, as well as the importance of industry and private sector actors in implementing many of these policies. Thoughtful engagement with stakeholders ranging from subsistence hunters and farmers to industrial animal agriculture operations is key for policy success in this area. CONCLUSION: This review outlines the state of the evaluative evidence around policies to prevent zoonotic spillover in order to guide policy decision-making and focus research efforts. Since we found that most of the existing policy evaluations target 'downstream' determinants, additional research could focus on evaluating policies targeting 'upstream' determinants of zoonotic spillover, such as land use change, and policies impacting infection intensity and pathogen shedding in animal populations, such as those targeting animal welfare.

Leveraging Donor Populations to Study the Epidemiology and Pathogenesis of Transfusion-Transmitted and Emerging Infectious Diseases.

The tragedy of transfusion-associated hepatitis and HIV spurred a decades-long overhaul of the regulatory oversight and practice of blood transfusion. Consequent to improved donor selection, testing, process control, clinical transfusion practice and post-transfusion surveillance, transfusion in the United States and other high-income countries is now a very safe medical procedure. Nonetheless, pathogens continue to emerge and threaten the blood supply, highlighting the need for a proactive approach to blood transfusion safety. Blood donor populations and the global transfusion infrastructure are under-utilized resources for the study of infectious diseases. Blood donors are large, demographically diverse subsets of general populations for whom cross-sectional and longitudinal samples are readily accessible for serological and molecular testing. Blood donor collection networks span diverse geographies, including in low- and middle-income countries, where agents, especially zoonotic pathogens, are able to emerge and spread, given limited tools for recognition, surveillance and control. Routine laboratory storage and transportation, coupled with data capture, afford access to rich epidemiological data to assess the epidemiology and pathogenesis of established and emerging infections. Subsequent to the State of the Science in Transfusion Medicine symposium in 2022, our working group (WG), "Emerging Infections: Impact on Blood Science, the Blood Supply, Blood Safety, and Public Health" elected to focus on "leveraging donor populations to study the epidemiology and pathogenesis of transfusion-transmitted and emerging infectious diseases." The 5 landmark studies span (1) the implication of hepatitis C virus in post-transfusion hepatitis, (2) longitudinal evaluation of plasma donors with incident infections, thus informing the development of a widely used staging system for acute HIV infection, (3) explication of the dynamics of early West Nile Virus infection, (4) the deployment of combined molecular and serological donor screening for Babesia microti, to characterize its epidemiology and infectivity and facilitate routine donor screening, and (5) national serosurveillance for SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The studies highlight the interplay between infectious diseases and transfusion medicine, including the imperative to ensure blood transfusion safety and the broader application of blood donor populations to the study of infectious diseases.

Emerging infectious diseases, focus on infection prevention, environmental survival and germicide susceptibility: SARS-CoV-2, Mpox, and Candida auris.

BACKGROUND: New and emerging infectious diseases continue to represent a public health threat. Emerging infectious disease threats include pathogens increasing in range (eg, Mpox), zoonotic microbes jumping species lines to cause sustained infections in humans via person-to-person transmission (SARS-CoV-2) and multidrug-resistant pathogens (eg, Candida auris). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched the published English literature and reviewed the selected articles on SARS-CoV-2, Mpox, and Candida auris with a focus on environmental survival, contamination of the patient's hospital environment, susceptibility of the pathogen to antiseptics and disinfectants and infection prevention recommendations. RESULTS: All three pathogens (ie, SARS-CoV-2, Mpox, and Candida auris) can survive on surfaces for minutes to hours and for Mpox and C auris for days. Currently available antiseptics (eg, 70%-90% alcohol hand hygiene products) are active against SARS-CoV-2, Mpox and C auris. The U.S Environmental Protection Agency provides separate lists of surface disinfectants active against SARS-CoV-2, Mpox, and C auris. DISCUSSION: The risk of environment-to-patient transmission of SARS-CoV-2, Mpox and Candida auris, is very low, low-moderate and high, respectively. In the absence of appropriate patient isolation and use of personal protection equipment, the risk of patient-to-health care provider transmission of SARS-CoV-2, Mpox, and C auris is high, moderate and low, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Appropriate patient isolation, use of personal protective equipment by health care personnel, hand hygiene, and surface disinfection can protect patients and health care personnel from acquiring SARS-CoV-2, Mpox, and C auris from infected patients.

Study on the regional risk classification method for the prevention and control of emerging infectious diseases based on directed graph theory.

Background: Emerging infectious diseases are a class of diseases that are spreading rapidly and are highly contagious. It seriously affects social stability and poses a significant threat to human health, requiring urgent measures to deal with them. Its outbreak will very easily lead to the large-scale spread of the virus, causing social problems such as work stoppages and traffic control, thereby causing social panic and psychological unrest, affecting human activities and social stability, and even endangering lives. It is essential to prevent and control the spread of infectious diseases effectively. Purpose: We aim to propose an effective method to classify the risk level of a new epidemic region by using graph theory and risk classification methods to provide a theoretical reference for the comprehensive evaluation and determination of epidemic prevention and control, as well as risk level classification. Methods: Using the graph theory method, we first define the network structure of social groups and construct the risk transmission network of the new epidemic region. Then, combined with the risk classification method, the classification of high, medium, and low risk levels of the new epidemic region is discussed from two cases with common and looped graph nodes, respectively. Finally, the reasonableness of the classification method is verified by simulation data. Results: The directed weighted scale-free network can better describe the transmission law of an epidemic. Moreover, the proposed method of classifying the risk level of a region by using the correlation function between two regions and the risk value of the regional nodes can effectively evaluate the risk level of different regions in the new epidemic region. The experiments show that the number of medium and high risk nodes shows no increasing trend. The number of high-risk regions is relatively small compared to medium-risk regions, and the number of low-risk regions is the largest. Conclusions: It is necessary to distinguish scientifically between the risk level of the epidemic area and the neighboring regions so that the constructed social network model of the epidemic region's spread risk can better describe the spread of the epidemic risk in the social network relations.

Deep reinforcement learning framework for controlling infectious disease outbreaks in the context of multi-jurisdictions.

In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing and lockdown have been key options for controlling new or reemerging respiratory infectious disease outbreaks. The timely implementation of these interventions is vital for effectively controlling and safeguarding the economy.Motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic, we evaluated whether, when, and to what level lockdowns are necessary to minimize epidemic and economic burdens of new disease outbreaks. We formulated the question as a sequential decision-making Markov Decision Process and solved it using deep Q-network algorithm. We evaluated the question under two objective functions: a 2-objective function to minimize economic burden and hospital capacity violations, suitable for diseases with severe health risks but with minimal death, and a 3-objective function that additionally minimizes the number of deaths, suitable for diseases that have high risk of mortality.A key feature of the model is that we evaluated the above questions in the context of two-geographical jurisdictions that interact through travel but make autonomous and independent decisions, evaluating under cross-jurisdictional cooperation and non-cooperation. In the 2-objective function under cross-jurisdictional cooperation, the optimal policy was to aim for shutdowns at 50 and 25% per day. Though this policy avoided hospital capacity violations, the shutdowns extended until a large proportion of the population reached herd immunity. Delays in initiating this optimal policy or non-cooperation from an outside jurisdiction required shutdowns at a higher level of 75% per day, thus adding to economic burdens. In the 3-objective function, the optimal policy under cross-jurisdictional cooperation was to aim for shutdowns of up to 75% per day to prevent deaths by reducing infected cases. This optimal policy continued for the entire duration of the simulation, suggesting that, until pharmaceutical interventions such as treatment or vaccines become available, contact reductions through physical distancing would be necessary to minimize deaths. Deviating from this policy increased the number of shutdowns and led to several deaths.In summary, we present a decision-analytic methodology for identifying optimal lockdown strategy under the context of interactions between jurisdictions that make autonomous and independent decisions. The numerical analysis outcomes are intuitive and, as expected, serve as proof of the feasibility of such a model. Our sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the optimal policy exhibits robustness to minor alterations in the transmission rate, yet shows sensitivity to more substantial deviations. This finding underscores the dynamic nature of epidemic parameters, thereby emphasizing the necessity for models trained across a diverse range of values to ensure effective policy-making.

U.S. kills effort to hunt dangerous viruses.

Critics feared DEEP VZN project could help pathogens jump from animals to humans.

Environmental spillover of emerging viruses: Is it true?

The concept of environmental "spillover" of pathogens to humans is widely used in the scientific literature about emerging diseases with the idea that it is scientifically proven. However, the exact characterization of the mechanism of spillover is simply lacking. A systematic review retrieved 688 articles using this term. The systematic analysis revealed an irreducible polysemy covering ten different definitions. It also demonstrated the absence of explicit definition in most of the articles, and even antinomies. A modeling analysis of the various processes described by these ten definitions showed that none of them corresponded to the complete trajectory leading to the emergence of a disease. There is no article demonstrating a mechanism of spillover. There are only ten articles proposing ideas on how a putative spillover could work but they merely are intellectual constructions. All other articles only reuse the term with no demonstration. It is essential to understand that since there is no scientific concept behind the "spillover", it might be dangerous to base public health and public protection against future pandemics on it.